Central Valley Deal Sheet

I frame houses for a living in Modesto, and about ten years ago I started buying a few to fix. The Central Valley isn't glamorous, and coastal investors tend to look past it. That's part of why the numbers still work here when they've stopped working in San Jose.

This sheet is what I'd tell a friend who wanted to buy in Fresno, Bakersfield, Stockton or Modesto. It's practical and a little opinionated.

What's on the sheet

The first note covers landlords in Fresno and Bakersfield who are done being landlords, and what to know about their tenants. The second is about vacant houses in Stockton and Modesto: why they sit empty, what that costs the owner and what it costs you. The third is my rehab math, the part where most Valley deals are won or lost.

Data I actually use

For rents, HUD's Fair Market Rents give a quick county-by-county baseline. For prices over time, the FHFA House Price Index tracks metro areas like Fresno and Stockton going back decades. For population, the state's Department of Finance E-1 estimates come out every May and show which cities are growing.

None of these will tell you what a specific house is worth. Comps and your own eyes do that. But they keep you from fooling yourself about a market.

Finding sellers

I've found deals through driving neighborhoods, county records and other contractors. More recently I've bought leads where the seller reached out about selling. If you want to see what's out there, seller leads by California city is one place to look at the Valley markets side by side.

This is one contractor's experience. Get your own inspections and run your own numbers.

Wes Dutra frames houses in Modesto and has bought and rehabbed Valley houses on the side for about ten years. He prices repairs the way a contractor does, which is pessimistically.